Well this week we arrived at FED day!, the one we have been waiting for.
A quick revist of last week's blog, just so we remind ourselves what I was was looking for:
Well Monday and Tuesday probably not a lot. I expect sideways action. So let's discuss options for the FED as this is the main event.
1. No cut (unlikely) Very big downside action
2. 25 bps cut and jawboning bonanza - I expect big downside
3. 50 bps big move upside
Obviously I can't predict what the FED will do but I expect option 2. The question will be then is if the 25 bps are "priced in"? Where we are currently i.e. ATH's, seasonally (August to October) I am expecting a 3%-5% move downwards and this certainly could provide the catalyst."
Cough Cough, can I have a tick for that please?
" If you want to have some skin in the game you could buy a long straddle buy call/put at the same strike or a strangle (OTM buy call/put) and hope for the big move either way, I'd prefer the strangle to be honest on a weekly timeframe. " Cough cough again"
Well what a week or more precisely what a nice 2.5 days post the FED meeting, I am going to be modest, humble and self effacing - I am absolutely nailed it ! 😊 853 Ticks on the week and some amazing calls and boy, I absolutely love a fast market, just the way I like it! This is why I love trading, when chaos reigns he/she who has planned, prepared and expects prospers.
Ok most of you will know I did my first webinar on how I trade, my daily routine and how I create my high probability setups to trade against. So far i have had positive feedback and I have to say it was an enjoyable experience. I am happy to go into more details and expand on certain subjects if people wish and do another webinar, please message me and let me know. The recording of the webinar is here:
I think have mentioned before that a number of people have asked about a live chat room, coaching etc. I have decided if enough people want I can set up a trading room /coaching/mentoring service that will include 2 hours of real time trading on Wednesday 7pm BST - 9pm BST 2pm EST 4pm EST thus will include FED and potentially we could do other days as well. I will also have a coaching / mentoring aspect where i think every week or 2 weeks i can essentially have webinars expanding more on psychological, trading setups, practices and methodologies (essentially how I trade and how you need to trade) - This will be determined by how many people wish for it, obviously. So it's up to you guys. If you are interested let me know. It will focus on YOUR trading and how to develop and improve your trading skill set and mindset, through my techniques and experience. It will be done in a group setting and the aim is to make your trading self sufficient and will be fun and most importantly not cost the earth! Although I will say if you are not serious about having a long term trading a career but want to just blindly follow my trades then it will not be for you! I expect people to be committed otherwise you will waste your own time and mine. I can send out signals / analysis all day long for people to follow but it's certainly more challenging and rewarding developing peoples trading careers. I will focus on group coaching and 1-2-1. Setting targets / objectives for an each individuals needs.
Lastly does anyone know how I would be able to send tweets direct to a phone number ? or if I could use another tool. Thinking I could set something up, like a signal service (but for free) . I have seen Zapier but it's quite costly. Could use slack may be? Or maybe people just want to get everything on twitter? Thinking i could send my trades to people more directly that's all. Thoughts appreciated.
What do I expect this week. Tough call now. Do we consolidate? Do we continue down? Having called last week to a tee and the low of Friday I will somewhat sit of the fence this week.
The weekly pivot is 2958 which essentially is the trend line so I definitely expect a revisit of this during the week. The question is where from, we could have a retest early in the week to 60/70/86 area and 86 being a definite sell, if we convert hold 60 we could still go higher medium term (although i do not expect this). On the low side we have 2947/33/13/900/897/2878/2860/50
WP on RUT1556 upper 1573/88 lower 1524/10/00/1494/78/52
WP on NQ 7796 upper 7878/7800 lower 7661/569/500
WP on DOW 26671 upper 27083/26750 lower support 26249/26150/26k
Sunday night could be interesting if they try and drop it below 2900 although I doubt we will go that low. As always wait for price to dictate. Thanks TI