Hope you are all well. Let's take a quick look at last weeks blog and review it...
" Firstly if the bulls want a double top / new ATH they have to break and hold 2990 on ES :the key this week will be 2938 (gap no 2) 2954 which is WP (weekly pivot) 2950 and 2906 (gap no 1). I think we will at least test 2950 at some point. "
"The clue this week will be on the retest of the weekly pivots and if they hold or not. "
Well lets just say they missed WP by 2 handles and the rest is history it was one way traffic ramp to almost a new ATH. The ECB did not disappoint and this week it's the FED turn !!
Oh the FED - What do we expect, very tough call here. Probably 25bps cut but if no cut then it will be seen as a big disappointment and I would expect ES to drop to at least 2780 over the next couple of weeks. If we do get a cut then god knows where this will go but 3050 is on the cards and 3100 also. Will FED cut though with a China deal suddenly looking on the cards again? Trump screaming at them to cut rates ? I am not going to make a guess! I just feel the whole situation is laughable, if the economies of the world are doing so well why is half the planet going negative rates and FED decreasing - its all balderdash!
As mentioned last week I started my Real Time & Mentoring Service 2 weeks and it's going great. We are currently up 15 handles on the ES and the guys have had a significant improvement on their handles from the 1st week. I don't want this blog to be a plug for the RT & Mentoring service but at the end of the 1st month I will publish the progress over each week. I have also enjoyed training and working the guys immensely!
My daily and weekly pivot and Camarilla points is back up on my website and will be published daily on Twitter each day now that i have it automated. Apologies for it being down but its now automated and on a new server. Note the weekly will need some tweaking but should be ready for tomorrow.
The week ahead
Clearly the events of the weekend i.e. The Saudi Oil bombing may be a market mover on Sunday night / Monday. There seems not to be much news on the actual scale of the fires and when they will be extinguished and when production will revert to normal. I expect CL will no doubt rocket on open. How this will affect indices / equities is a quandry clearly good for Oil majors but a much higher oil price? ain't ... particularly good for the rest of the global industries and commerce nor consumer's pockets. With most countries not far from recession ...(sorry the global outlook is all good said each and every central banket) this event is not useful to say the least. There is also the political affect and it's outcome i.e. war with Iran /Saudi arabia and may be the US and the whole of the Middle East drama. Well good luck with that if you want to be long equities. Although on the good side we might now get some inflation ... To add to the mix its OPEX week so that will bring an interesting dynamic as prices tend to levitate into the quarterly fix.
No doubt we will have the essential Twitter bombs as per usual but I can't see the market doing anything significant other than waiting for the FED decision.
ES levels this week are:
WP:2995 RES 3092,62,50,44,34,28,21,18,12, SPT 04,3000,2994,88,78,68,56,5045,38
DOW WP 27,081 RES 27,380,445,543,670,28K SPT 27165,27,057,27K,26,855
NDX Cash WP 7894 RES 8052,7978/72 920 906 SPT 7,877,63,48,7814,800,736
My feeling is that Sunday & Monday may be used to shake out the longs but we will see...
Thanks and catch you tomorrow. TI