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The week ahead 22nd June 2019

Hi All, I hope you are enjoy your weekend. Well what an eventful week we had FOMC, comments from Draghi and OPEX: meaning price as usual gravitated up ... and we saw new all time highs. My call last week was for FED to not cut rates and for stocks to close on a high on Friday. So let's just call that a tick! So how did we do, well 451 ticks across 6 indexes and am now sitting on 733 for the last 2 weeks, which to be honest is pretty good.


What do we expect this week.. Well as you know G20 is on Friday & Saturday so this will will probably be quite absurd with lots of news bombs of "will they won't they" and we could have some huge volatility intraday both to the upside and downside. I like these sort of events because you can make a lot of money fast and intraday options can be a very nice play - you can also lose a lot if discipline is ignored and your stops will need to be concrete!


I am not going to predict levels at this stage but clearly we can hit 3000 ES and above possibly 3100 conversely we can hit 2650/2740. I really dont believe they will do a deal and i feel that this saga will drag on and on. so what does that mean for stocks... it means they can only go higher if rates are cut number 1 or if China and US have a deal.


The trouble is here guys is that any one with half a brain can see that all economies (EU, JAPAN, China, US) are in trouble and that the central banks are propping up everything with new money supply. I could talk about Non farm payroll figures and how they are fixed, cpi, GDP, corporate debt etc , you name it, the evidence is all to see. You will never get Powell saying look like guys we are in the shit here but don't worry, all will be ok. This will last till it lasts and when the music stops the game will be over. The next bear market will be soon upon us and ultimately will be because faith in central banks will be lost. The market has a feel of one last hurrah and is in the complete denial stage, any negative news at the moment is just dismissed. As Macmillan once said "Events dear boy, events". Now when will this happen? no idea it could be 6 months - 2 years or 5 years my bet within the next year we will have found an eventual top for a very long time. Look at what happened with the Nikkei and you can see what devastation looks like over a period of years, it has never recovered. When the time's right a catalyst will come and in the meantime we will have to play the game. So for next week may be down to 2880 / 2900 and then up into G20 that would be my bet.


Real time or not real time


As you saw on Thursday i started to comment on a few things that have historically annoyed me, which is people playing with people's minds and exclaiming to be trading geniuses. I was stating that if someone says that a market will go from say as an example 50 SPX level to 70 SPX or from SPX 20 to 05 SPX whilst the SPX is currently trading 35 that one of these statements will be true. So if you wait say 6 hours and one of the possibilities happens: You can not say if it went to 70 that's a 35 "zipper" nor to 05 and say it a 30 point "zipper" in real time because a) clearly one would only trade 50-70 or 20-05 meaning max win would be 20 or 15 points. and none of it was in real time cause clearly one was stating 2 possibilities at a price far from the levels quoted.

It constantly amazes me how people think this is magical and yet they don't see the simplicity of the statement and the probability of the statement being correct! It's beyond me... I looked at some of my trolls their bio said young, aspiring, traders, they forgot to mention naive & dumb, to be fair i was young naive and dumb once too but i guess i didn't have access to twitter and therefore could not prove my innocence to the whole word. It's a beautiful piece of marketing to always be right.


I believe there are very few if any people on twitter that actually say in RT look i bought spx at 51 and sold at 57 and i sold 62 and bought 55, to me that is real time: you tweet what you are doing at the exact time the market is trading at that price. This means exposing myself in RT and being vulnerable and most importantly proving i am human and thus can make losing trades as well as winning ones. Clearly trolls love it when you lose and but rarely troll when you make money, for some reason ... if i wanted to to have 10K followers it appears i can start my day at 2 mins before the open with the following "Yesterday close was at 2850 if we trade 860 we will hit 870 if we hit 840 we hit 820" and then at close wherever the market has gone either up and down i will be a genius all in RT.


Subs / Subscriptions


A lot of people have been DMing me about subs, that i should set up a subscription service and we all "win". So to answer this quickly, i am afraid i can't. I simply do not have time and if i were to set up a subs service i would want it to be professional and educational which means giving you all of my time, of which currently i have none. I am in the middle of selling a company and its just way to hectic. After the summer or really after the sale of the company, i can think about it but for now it's a no go.


Does this mean i am against subs service, no, i have no problem with subs only if and only if! a) They make you a better trader, b) they provide a valuable service to the individual and lastly c) they help you make make money. I come from an Investment Banking & Hedge fund background we had economists / researches / sales guys / tech guys you name it -we needed them all, to run our business and guess what they all came out of our budget. It's part of my business expense.


I use some professional services on twitter for my trading: I pay for technical analysis and research i probably spend about 500 US per month on services, it seems perfectly sensible for me to do this if: a) i don't have the time to do it myself or b) the person doing it is better than me at doing it and c) with this information i can make money. So like i say spending say $200pm in the right context can be a good investment.


What will I do.


I speak a lot with guys on DM and answer a lot of questions, what i am thinking of doing if people are interested is maybe doing some goto skype webinars /presentations where we can discuss certain trading topics. Such as:


1. Entry / Exit trade management

2. Position sizing

3. Set ups

4. Emotional side of trading

5. Stops,


The above are just a few ideas, if people want to add more topics i am happy to add. I thought i could take a few topics and put a program together. This would be free or if there is a charge for the webinar it would be cost of webinar / total participants (i don't think this will be much) ultimately my time will be free.



I want to understand and help people, depending on how many people and locations i may split the groups i would like to have some facility either through my website or other service when people who have the same issues can discuss it openly with each other. I know it sounds like a support group ! But trust me it is how we learn (check out group dynamics), you can only learn from your peers , trading is mostly experiential and thus the more times you go through the pain of loss / change of reaction or habit the quicker you will become more experienced / better trader. I will obviously participate in these groups and we could maybe do this once a week and check in with each to continue learning.


Let me know your thoughts. Right that is enough. Have a good weekend and see you next week. TI




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