The week ahead 07 July 2019

Hi All,

Hope you are all enjoying your weekend. Last week's call was melt up into 3000 ES for Independence Day and i was .. well.. to say bang on! Overall i tweeted 188 ticks of profitable trades and to be honest should have done a bit better, but even though it was not a holiday in the UK it felt a very slow week so i just relaxed and played around with what was a slow tape. Overall now for the last 4 weeks that puts me at 1179 all tweeted in RT. It's been a pretty good month so I am happy with that.

So whats next???

Well tbh it's a quandary here, clearly the market is looking for rate cuts in July from the FED and i am not to sure that will happen with the jobs numbers on Friday. It's ridiculous even to suggest a rate cut in these job market conditions , but if we look under the bonnet all is not good and of course the FED knows that as the data is plain to see. The stock market has gone up on the basis of cheap money now for 10 years so it's feasible this could continue, especially as we are going into earnings. However, there are lots of signs that we could be heading lower, VIX looks like its bottoming and ready for a higher move. TBH i fancy a nice shakedown and expect some volatility soon but with summer season here whether anything big will happen is anyone's guess. As always the catalyst will be a Black Swan event or may be we will have to wait for the FED meeting at the EOM. The market will have to break the previous ATH @2962 for anything meaningful to happen. The market now is driven by the "yield play" i.e. Bonds in Germany, Switzerland,Japan all negative yields, the US at under 2% where do you put your money well the answer is stocks when they are up 19% for the year.

This week i have upside targets on ES at 3009,19,33,43 with the 3043-50 area being very big resistance. Downside we will have to remain under WP at 2984 for shorts. Dow I have 27250 as resistance. NQ i have 7950 support 7801- 7841. As always will let price dictate and the market tell me where it wants to go. Thanks for reading and catch you on Monday. TI

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